Vasco DA Gama

Wednesday night Serie A action sees Chapecoense-sc face Vasco DA Gama in a league clash the market rates as genuinely tight — Vasco are slight favourites at 2.3 (implied ~43.5%), but Chapecoense at 3.1 and the draw at 3.2 are both very much in play. Kickoff is 21:00 UK time. Vasco DA Gama get the market nod at 2.3 (implied ~43.5%), and the underlying numbers justify that lean — they average 1.51 expected goals and 5.3 shots on target across their 20-game sample, dwarfing Chapecoense's 0.97 xG and 3.3 SOT while controlling possession at 54% to 42%.