Gremio

It's Sunday night at the Arena do Grêmio and the Gre-Nal derby returns to Serie A action with a 21:30 UK kickoff. The market can barely split them — Internacional narrow favourites at 2.60 (implied ~38.5%) with Gremio breathing down their necks at 2.75 — and that tightness feels exactly right for a fixture that's produced five draws in the last ten meetings. The market leans Internacional and the shot profile agrees: Colorado average 1.27 expected goals and nearly 15 shots per game, against Gremio's 0.77 xG and 11.5 shots.