Model performance.
The receipts.
Every PicksIQ pick that settles is logged. Every win, every loss, every push. This page shows the aggregate — hit rate, ROI, average odds, broken down by market and by league. No marketing numbers. No cherry-picking. The data straight from the database, updated hourly.
By Bela B. · Last updated 16 Oct 2026, 21:20 UTC
A typical recreational bettor loses around 5 to 7% per unit staked over time — that's the bookmaker's margin baked into every price. PicksIQ's lifetime aggregate sits at -0.2% ROI across 4,018 settled picks. Beating the bookmaker margin is the bar we're trying to clear — not making people rich, but giving them a measurable structural edge over the average punter.
By market
Performance breaks down very differently across markets. Some are structurally easier to model than others — and some have sample sizes too small to read into yet.
| Market | Bets | Won | Hit rate | Avg odds | Staked | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Match result (1X2) | 2,562 | 1,348 | 52.7% | 2.01 | 354,956u | +0.5% |
Total goals over/under | 839 | 451 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 87,330u | -5.2% |
Both teams to score | 484 | 258 | 53.3% | 1.82 | 30,540u | +2.4% |
Corners over/under | 115 | 50 | 44.2% | 1.79 | 7,218u | +7.2% |
DOUBLE_CHANCE | 15 | 12 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1,725u | +34.0% |
RESULT_BTTS | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 6.00 | 27u | +270.4% |
WIN_TO_NIL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.67 | 35u | +67.0% |
Hit rate is wins divided by wins + losses (excludes voids and pushes). ROI is (total payout − total staked) / total staked, expressed as a percentage. Avg odds is the simple mean of decimal odds taken on settled picks.Glossary →
Across time
Recent samples are smaller and noisier, but useful for spotting shifts. Form fluctuates; a thirty-day window is volatile by nature.
By league
Strongest and weakest league-level returns from lifetime settled picks. Minimum 25 bets to appear, sorted by volume.
| League | Bets | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
FIFA World Cup 2026 World | 534 | 60.3% | +6.3% |
English Premier League England | 503 | 46.1% | -6.5% |
La Liga Spain | 296 | 56.4% | +10.8% |
Serie A Italy | 266 | 50.8% | -6.1% |
UEFA Champions League Europe | 255 | 52.5% | +8.5% |
Bundesliga Germany | 183 | 59.0% | -5.0% |
Brazilian Serie A Brazil | 170 | 47.1% | -9.8% |
Ligue 1 France | 164 | 50.6% | +1.4% |
Championship England | 157 | 44.6% | +8.1% |
MLS USA | 143 | 44.1% | +10.7% |
UEFA Europa League Europe | 132 | 53.0% | +2.1% |
Süper Lig Turkey | 116 | 61.2% | -5.3% |
AI Take coverage
PicksIQ publishes nightly AI-generated previews for every priced fixture across our covered leagues. Two models run in parallel as a second-opinion check.
Per-pick settlement for AI Take heroPicks will be added once retrospective fixture results are backfilled into the database. Today, the AI Take is constrained at the prompt level to only recommend selections inside the model's probability output — the prose can never recommend a market the underlying numbers don't support.
How these numbers are calculated
Data source
Every row is a real settled bet from the PicksIQ Bet table. Settlement runs every two hours via cron, pulling final scores from API-Football and the data pipeline's league summary feeds. No simulated picks, no backtest entries.
Stake convention
All stakes are in PicksIQ virtual units. Default stake is a flat 1u per pick, with optional half-Kelly sizing for users who want stake to scale with edge.Half-Kelly →
Hit rate vs ROI
Hit rate and ROI are not the same thing. A market with a 65% hit rate at average odds of 1.40 is roughly break-even; a market with a 48% hit rate at average odds of 2.30 is comfortably profitable. ROI is the single metric that ties the two together.
What's excluded
Pending bets do not feed any of these numbers. Voided fixtures (cancellations, abandonments) are counted toward bet count but excluded from hit rate. Accumulator legs are settled and counted individually.
Past performance is not a guarantee
Beating the bookmaker margin over a sample of 4,018 picks is a meaningful structural result, but it is not a promise of future returns. Variance is real. Bad runs happen. PicksIQ should be used as an analysis tool, not as financial advice. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.
If gambling is a problem, please contact BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. 18+.