Burnley

Saturday afternoon at Vicarage Road sees 20th-placed Watford host a Burnley side priced as tight favourites for this Championship fixture. The market can't split these two with much conviction — Burnley's 2.2 reads as a lean rather than a statement — and given both clubs' recent struggles, that caution feels well-placed. Burnley sit as market favourites at 2.2 (implied ~45.5%), and the underlying shot numbers back that lean — they're generating 1.18 expected goals per game to Watford's 0.92, with more shots (13.38 to 11.63) and a marginal possession edge.