2026 FIFA World Cup predictions: every group, Golden Boot & our outright pick

Mexico are the home side and the obvious favourites, but don't rush to back them. Edson Álvarez went under the knife recently, and there's still no clarity on who's in goal — there's even talk of a Guillermo Ochoa comeback for a sixth World Cup, which is either charming or terrifying depending on how you look at it.

South Korea at a big price to win the group is the genuinely interesting bet. They've got the quality in attack and have consistently punched above their weight at recent tournaments. If Mexico's injury problems worsen between now and kick-off, the Koreans could easily top this group.

Switzerland are the most consistent team in this group, full stop. Yes, "consistent" can be a polite way of saying "a bit boring" — but after their impressive showing at Euro 2024, hammering Italy and giving England a proper scare before bowing out on penalties, there's evidence that Murat Yakin's side have an extra gear when it matters.

Canada are the hosts getting the most attention among North American neutrals, but they simply don't have the depth to challenge Switzerland across three group games. Qatar, meanwhile, are very much here to make up the numbers.

Five-time champions Brazil and 2022 semi-finalists Morocco are comfortably the two best teams here, and both should progress without too much drama. The more interesting bet sits further down the table.

Haiti get a lot of credit — perhaps too much — for being "hard to beat", but Scotland finishing bottom at the kind of price markets are offering is worth a look. Scotland will be motivated, will defend reasonably well under pressure, and their opener against Haiti is genuinely 50/50. If they sneak a point in that game, their goal difference becomes a factor in where they finish.

The Americans got a kind draw. There's no team in Group D that is clearly, definitively better than the United States — Türkiye probably come closest, with Real Madrid's Arda Güler and Juventus's Kenan Yildiz giving them genuine star quality in the final third. Beyond that, Paraguay are rugged and physical but limited, while Australia are the weakest side in the group.

The Socceroos did punch above their weight in Qatar, winning 1-0 against Tunisia and Denmark, but that defence isn't going to hold firm three times against stronger opposition. Tim Cahill isn't walking back through the door to lead the line, either.

Germany have crashed out in the group stage at the last two World Cups, ending a remarkable streak of reaching at least the quarter-finals at 16 consecutive tournaments. Brutal. But with this new, forgiving format, another early exit feels unlikely. They'll get through.

The more exciting bet here is Ecuador. In qualifying, La Tri were genuinely outstanding — 13 clean sheets in 18 games, conceding just five goals across the whole campaign, tying the CONMEBOL record. Moises Caicedo is arguably Ecuador's best ever player, and he's supported by a back line that includes Willian Pacho (PSG), Piero Hincapié (Arsenal) and Pervis Estupiñán (now at Milan).

If Enner Valencia — 36 and still somehow scoring — keeps finding the net, Ecuador can absolutely win this group outright.

The Dutch are favourites and probably deserve to be, but at the kind of short odds you'll see across the market, there's no real value backing them to top the group. Japan are the far more exciting play.

Under Hajime Moriyasu, Japan topped a 2022 group containing Spain and Germany — one of the great modern World Cup shocks. They have pace, they have pressing intensity, and they have quality spread right across European football, including Real Sociedad's Takefusa Kubo and Eintracht Frankfurt's Ritsu Dōan. Sweden and Tunisia are there to be beaten. Japan at a healthy price to win Group F is one of our favourite bets in the whole tournament.

This one is fairly straightforward at the top. Belgium's new generation has talent, and Egypt have arguably the best pair of wide players in the tournament in Mo Salah and Omar Marmoush. Both sides can go deep.

New Zealand, on the other hand, are simply outclassed. The All Whites will be competitive and committed, and they may well pick up a point along the way, but finishing anything other than bottom would be a genuine shock. Back them to end up with the wooden spoon at a price that, while short, is still worth including in a combination bet.

Note (as of April 2026): Iran's participation is subject to ongoing geopolitical developments. Check the latest FIFA announcements before placing.

Spain are the tournament favourites outright (around 6.00 in decimal odds) and they look every bit deserving of that tag. They were the best team at Euro 2024 and have arguably improved since. Lamine Yamal is one of the most exciting young players on the planet, and they have depth at every position.

Uruguay and Saudi Arabia will fight over second place, but we'd back Cape Verde to be more competitive than their massive prices suggest. They've made three Cup of Nations knockout stages since 2013, they're flexible in attack, and they have more energy than Hervé Renard's conservative Saudi setup.

Still, Spain look a standout for "to win all three group games" — it's worth a play at the right price.

France are loaded. Like, genuinely absurdly loaded. Their B team would probably win most of these groups on their own. Didier Deschamps knows how to navigate a bracket, even if his methods occasionally induce mild anxiety among French supporters.

Norway and Erling Haaland bring obvious danger — he's one of those players who can change a game with a single moment of brilliance — but the real value in this group is Senegal at a big price to finish top. Sadio Mané leads a front line that also includes Nicolas Jackson (Chelsea) and Iliman Ndiaye (Everton). They have quality all over the pitch — Kalidou Koulibaly marshals the defence, Édouard Mendy is in goal, and Pape Sarr and Idrissa Gueye sit in midfield.

They shocked France in 2002. History has a funny way of repeating itself.

Defending champions Argentina are the obvious group winners, and at the price offered, there's no real reason to argue. The more interesting market is who comes second.

Algeria have a strong wide attacking shape, led by the veteran Riyad Mahrez alongside Rayan Aït-Nouri (Man City) and Mohamed Amoura (Wolfsburg). They can stretch defences and exploit space behind a pressing side like Austria. The "Argentina to win Group J and Algeria to finish second" exacta could be a lovely little double.

Jordan, making their World Cup debut, are completely outclassed by their group. They'll have their fans, they'll give it everything, but the gap in quality is significant.

This is a fascinating one. Portugal are priced up as outright contenders at around 13.00 for the tournament, but to win Group K the odds on Colombia are genuinely tempting.

Colombia have real star power — Luis Díaz is among the most dangerous wide forwards in world football, Jhon Arias has been electric, and James Rodríguez, the eternal wild card, is still pulling the strings when his body lets him. They also had a 28-game unbeaten streak heading into the Copa América 2024 final. That's not a fluke. The group finale between Colombia and Portugal, likely in Miami before a pro-Colombia crowd, could be a classic.

England are the second favourites for the tournament at around 9.00 decimal, and new manager Thomas Tuchel is reportedly keen on a more aggressive, proactive style than the often laboured football England played under Gareth Southgate for eight years. He has the players to deliver that, and Group L offers no real threat to England topping it.

Croatia's squad is ageing — Luka Modrić turns 41 during the tournament — and while you'd never write off a generation with that much tournament experience, this feels like the end of the road for the golden era. Ghana and Panama round out the group, with Panama arguably the more interesting watch under Thomas Christiansen, who has given them real tactical structure and an ability to compete against stronger opposition.

Panama to reach the Round of 32 is a bet we're tempted by.